#86

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Mountain West · 0-1

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 15,194 seats

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors rank #86 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.016 points per play (Elo 1520), a 0-1 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.016
#86 in FBS
Offense
-0.006
higher is better
Defense
+0.010
lower is better
SOS
-0.030
mean opp. rating
Elo
1520
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Hawai'i's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.016

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.005

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.011

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production65%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.85σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+6.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@StanfordL 2737
1vsUNLVSep 6
2vsNew Mexico StateSep 13
4@WyomingSep 26
5vsSan José StateOct 4
6@Arizona StateOct 10
7vsNew MexicoOct 17
8@Northern IllinoisOct 24
10@UTEPNov 7
11vsNorth Dakota StateNov 15
12@NevadaNov 21
13vsSacramento StateNov 29