Walk-Forward Validation
Backtest Results
Every number on this page comes from strict walk-forward validation — the model only sees data available before each game. No look-ahead bias, no cherry-picking, no curve fitting. These are predictions the model would have made in real time.
Methodology
The backtest uses walk-forward validation — for every game, the model is trained only on data from prior games. A warm-up period of 15 games per team per season is excluded so early-season noise doesn't pollute results. This mirrors exactly how the model runs in production: it never sees the future.
Predictions are compared against opening lines from SBRO (SBR Odds), not closing lines. Opening lines are the earliest available market price — the hardest benchmark to beat because they haven't yet been moved by sharp money. If a model can beat openers, it has genuine predictive edge.
ATS (against the spread) results assume +100 (no juice) — prediction market pricing. Profit calculations use flat $100 units on every qualifying game. No kelly sizing, no parlays, no teasing.
Verify it yourself
Download the full dataset — every game, every prediction, every result. 4,128 games across 5 seasons. Run your own analysis.
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The same model that produced these backtest results runs every day with live data.