MLB Predictions Today
Simulation-driven predictions for every MLB game. Each matchup is simulated thousands of times at the at-bat level using Marcel + Bayesian player projections, with park factors, weather, umpire tendencies, and bullpen fatigue baked in.
How Our MLB Predictions Work
Predictium's MLB model simulates every plate appearance in sequence through both batting orders — tracking runners, outs, score, pitch counts, and times-through-order penalties — across 2,000–5,000 Monte Carlo runs per game. Player talent comes from Marcel-style 5/4/3 weighted projections enhanced with Bayesian pooling over Statcast data and external projection systems. The result isn't a single point estimate: it's a full probability distribution for every market — moneyline, run line, totals at multiple lines, and first-5-innings splits.
Predictions refresh on a 5-minute loop on game days as lineups are confirmed, weather updates, and umpire assignments are announced.
Want the Full Breakdown?
Click into any game for score distributions, batting orders, key factors, and park/weather context.
Read the Methodology