#115

San José State Spartans

Mountain West · 0-1

CEFCU Stadium · 30,456 seats

San José State Spartans rank #115 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.043 points per play (Elo 1388), a 0-1 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.043
#115 in FBS
Offense
-0.025
higher is better
Defense
+0.018
lower is better
SOS
-0.028
mean opp. rating
Elo
1388
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind San José State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.043

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.015

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.028

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production4%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.76σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+0.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@USCL 2642
1@Eastern MichiganSep 4
2vsCal PolySep 12
3vsFresno StateSep 20
5@Hawai'iOct 4
6vsWyomingOct 10
7@UTEPOct 18
8@NevadaOct 24
9vsNew MexicoOct 31
10vsNorthern IllinoisNov 7
11@Air ForceNov 15
12vsUNLVNov 22
13vsNorth Dakota StateNov 27