#5

USC Trojans

Big Ten · 1-0

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 77,500 seats

USC Trojans rank #5 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.123 points per play (Elo 1669), a 1-0 record in the Big Ten, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.123
#5 in FBS
Offense
+0.064
higher is better
Defense
-0.059
lower is better
SOS
+0.049
mean opp. rating
Elo
1669
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind USC's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.123

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.153

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.030

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production59%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.67σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-11.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsSan José StateW 4226
1vsFresno StateSep 5
2vsLouisianaSep 13
3@RutgersSep 19
4vsOregonSep 26
5vsWashingtonOct 3
6@Penn StateOct 10
8@WisconsinOct 24
9vsOhio StateOct 31
11@IndianaNov 14
12vsMarylandNov 21
13@UCLANov 28