College Football
#51

UCLA Bruins

Big Ten · 6-0

Rose Bowl · 88,565 seats

UCLA Bruins rank #51 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.047 points per play (Elo 1661), a 6-0 record in the Big Ten, and 50% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.047
#51 in FBS
Offense
+0.010
higher is better
Defense
-0.037
lower is better
SOS
+0.027
mean opp. rating
Elo
1661
Off EPA/play
+0.034
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.079
lower is better
Off success
+0.018
Def success
-0.021
Off explosive
+0.006
Def explosive
-0.005
Rush EPA
+0.092
offense
Pass EPA
-0.027
offense
Pts / drive
2.37
11.0 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
2.82
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind UCLA's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.018

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.024

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.006

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining50%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production57%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.75σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+11.9 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.05-0.02Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@CaliforniaW 45–24———
2vsSan Diego StateW 28–10———
3vsPurdueW 52–38———
4@MarylandW 54–3———
6@OregonW 17–15———
7vsWisconsinW 17–7———
8vsMichigan StateOct 24———
9vsNevadaOct 31———
10@MinnesotaNov 7———
11vsIllinoisNov 14———
12@MichiganNov 21———
13vsUSCNov 28———