#18

Utah Utes

Big 12 · 0-0

Rice-Eccles Stadium · 51,444 seats

Utah Utes rank #18 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.086 points per play (Elo 1713), a 0-0 record in the Big 12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.086
#18 in FBS
Offense
+0.051
higher is better
Defense
-0.035
lower is better
SOS
+0.001
mean opp. rating
Elo
1713
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Utah's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.086

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.210

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.125

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production68%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.17σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-4.3 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsIdahoSep 4
2vsArkansasSep 13
3vsUtah StateSep 19
4@Iowa StateSep 26
6vsKansasOct 10
7@ColoradoOct 17
8vsHoustonOct 24
9@CincinnatiOct 31
10vsBYUNov 7
11@ArizonaNov 14
12@TCUNov 21
13vsWest VirginiaNov 28