#40

TCU Horned Frogs

Big 12 · 0-1

Amon G. Carter Stadium · 46,000 seats

TCU Horned Frogs rank #40 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.040 points per play (Elo 1609), a 0-1 record in the Big 12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.040
#40 in FBS
Offense
+0.018
higher is better
Defense
-0.021
lower is better
SOS
+0.016
mean opp. rating
Elo
1609
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind TCU's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.040

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.086

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.047

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production22%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.43σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1NNorth CarolinaL 1015
2vsGramblingSep 13
3vsArkansas StateSep 20
4@UCFSep 26
5vsBYUOct 3
7@BaylorOct 17
8vsWest VirginiaOct 24
9vsKansasOct 31
10@ArizonaNov 7
11vsKansas StateNov 14
12vsUtahNov 21
13@Texas TechNov 27