North Carolina Tar Heels
ACC · 4-8Kenan Stadium · 50,500 seats
North Carolina Tar Heels rank #106 of 136 FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.031 points per play (Elo 1421), a 4-8 record in the ACC, and 33% of that rating still riding on preseason priors. They went 5-6 against the closing spread.
Ratings
All splits are opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected.
What drives our rating
No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind North Carolina's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.
Where our rating started before a snap was played
How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive
Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster
Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average
Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal
First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors
Quarterback
Rating trajectory
Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.
Schedule & results
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Our line | Market | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsTCU | L 14–48 | +5.7 | +3.5 | L |
| 2 | @Charlotte | W 20–3 | +11.4 | +15.8 | W |
| 3 | vsRichmond | W 41–6 | -17.9 | -24.5 | W |
| 4 | @UCF | L 9–34 | -9.1 | -7.0 | L |
| 6 | vsClemson | L 10–38 | +9.1 | +15.5 | L |
| 8 | @California | L 18–21 | -10.8 | -7.5 | W |
| 9 | vsVirginia | L 16–17 | +13.4 | +11.5 | W |
| 10 | @Syracuse | W 27–10 | -11.1 | -1.5 | W |
| 11 | vsStanford | W 20–15 | -8.1 | -8.5 | L |
| 12 | @Wake Forest | L 12–28 | -10.2 | -3.5 | L |
| 13 | vsDuke | L 25–32 | +12.1 | +7.0 | push |
| 14 | @NC State | L 19–42 | -12.5 | -7.0 | L |
Lines are from this team's perspective (negative = favored). ATS is against the consensus closing spread.