North Carolina Tar Heels
ACC · 4-2Kenan Stadium · 50,500 seats
North Carolina Tar Heels rank #59 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.040 points per play (Elo 1548), a 4-2 record in the ACC, and 50% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.
Ratings
Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.
What drives our rating
No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind North Carolina's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.
Where our rating started before a snap was played
Last season's final rating, for comparison
This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number
How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive
Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster
Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average
Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal
First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors
Rating trajectory
Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.
Schedule & results
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Our line | Market | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTCU | W 15–10 | — | — | — |
| 2 | vsEast Tennessee State | W 35–3 | — | — | — |
| 3 | @Clemson | L 20–28 | — | — | — |
| 5 | vsNotre Dame | L 26–37 | — | — | — |
| 6 | @Pittsburgh | W 21–17 | — | — | — |
| 7 | @Duke | W 24–20 | — | — | — |
| 8 | vsSyracuse | Oct 24 | — | — | — |
| 9 | vsMiami | Oct 31 | — | — | — |
| 10 | @UConn | Nov 7 | — | — | — |
| 11 | vsLouisville | Nov 14 | — | — | — |
| 12 | @Virginia | Nov 21 | — | — | — |
| 13 | vsNC State | Nov 28 | — | — | — |