College Football
#5

Miami Hurricanes

ACC · 6-0

Hard Rock Stadium · 64,767 seats

Miami Hurricanes rank #5 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.161 points per play (Elo 1839), a 6-0 record in the ACC, and 50% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.161
#5 in FBS
Offense
+0.102
higher is better
Defense
-0.059
lower is better
SOS
+0.042
mean opp. rating
Elo
1839
Off EPA/play
+0.142
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.056
lower is better
Off success
+0.064
Def success
-0.027
Off explosive
+0.017
Def explosive
-0.011
Rush EPA
+0.066
offense
Pass EPA
+0.219
offense
Pts / drive
3.89
9.5 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
4.28
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Miami's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.125

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.195

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.071

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining50%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production37%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.57σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-6.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.160.00Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@StanfordW 45–6———
2vsFlorida A&MW 77–7———
3@Wake ForestW 33–20———
4vsCentral MichiganW 52–3———
5@ClemsonW 41–13———
7vsFlorida StateW 43–35———
8vsPittsburghOct 24———
9@North CarolinaOct 31———
10@Notre DameNov 8———
11vsDukeNov 14———
12vsVirginia TechNov 21———
13vsBoston CollegeNov 28———