College Football
#32

Pittsburgh Panthers

ACC · 5-2

Acrisure Stadium · 68,400 seats

Pittsburgh Panthers rank #32 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.074 points per play (Elo 1581), a 5-2 record in the ACC, and 46% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.074
#32 in FBS
Offense
+0.034
higher is better
Defense
-0.041
lower is better
SOS
+0.034
mean opp. rating
Elo
1581
Off EPA/play
+0.037
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.054
lower is better
Off success
+0.015
Def success
-0.035
Off explosive
+0.001
Def explosive
-0.013
Rush EPA
+0.035
offense
Pass EPA
+0.025
offense
Pts / drive
2.86
10.5 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.07
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Pittsburgh's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.055

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.114

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.060

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining46%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production40%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.02σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-4.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Quarterback

M. Heintschel1 starts

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.080.00Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsMiami (OH)W 59–14———
2vsUCFW 12–7———
3vsSyracuseW 27–13———
4vsBucknellW 59–0———
5@Virginia TechW 35–33———
6vsNorth CarolinaL 17–21———
7@Boston CollegeL 21–27———
8@MiamiOct 24———
9vsGeorgia TechOct 31———
11vsFlorida StateNov 14———
12@LouisvilleNov 21———
13@CaliforniaNov 28———