#15

Florida State Seminoles

ACC · 1-0

Doak Campbell Stadium · 67,277 seats

Florida State Seminoles rank #15 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.100 points per play (Elo 1504), a 1-0 record in the ACC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.100
#15 in FBS
Offense
+0.053
higher is better
Defense
-0.047
lower is better
SOS
+0.034
mean opp. rating
Elo
1504
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Florida State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.100

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.140

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.039

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production40%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.94σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-19.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsNew Mexico StateW 3417
1vsSMUSep 7
3@AlabamaSep 19
4vsCentral ArkansasSep 26
5vsVirginiaOct 3
6@LouisvilleOct 9
7@MiamiOct 17
9vsClemsonOct 31
10@Boston CollegeNov 7
11@PittsburghNov 14
12vsNC StateNov 21
13vsFloridaNov 27