#11

Alabama Crimson Tide

SEC · 0-0

Bryant-Denny Stadium · 101,821 seats

Alabama Crimson Tide rank #11 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.108 points per play (Elo 1700), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.108
#11 in FBS
Offense
+0.051
higher is better
Defense
-0.057
lower is better
SOS
+0.048
mean opp. rating
Elo
1700
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Alabama's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.108

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.141

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.032

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production26%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+2.22σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-6.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsEast CarolinaSep 5
2@KentuckySep 12
3vsFlorida StateSep 19
4vsSouth CarolinaSep 26
5@Mississippi StateOct 3
6vsGeorgiaOct 10
7@TennesseeOct 17
8vsTexas A&MOct 24
10@LSUNov 7
11@VanderbiltNov 14
12vsChattanoogaNov 21
13vsAuburnNov 28