#14

Oklahoma Sooners

SEC · 0-0

Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 86,112 seats

Oklahoma Sooners rank #14 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.104 points per play (Elo 1666), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.104
#14 in FBS
Offense
+0.055
higher is better
Defense
-0.049
lower is better
SOS
+0.062
mean opp. rating
Elo
1666
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Oklahoma's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.104

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.123

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.019

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production63%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.32σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-11.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsUTEPSep 5
2@MichiganSep 12
3vsNew MexicoSep 19
4@GeorgiaSep 26
6NTexasOct 10
7vsKentuckyOct 17
8@Mississippi StateOct 24
9vsSouth CarolinaOct 31
10@FloridaNov 7
11vsOle MissNov 14
12vsTexas A&MNov 21
13@MissouriNov 28