#18

Oklahoma Sooners

SEC · 10-3

Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 86,112 seats

Oklahoma Sooners rank #18 of 136 FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.113 points per play (Elo 1720), a 10-3 record in the SEC, and 33% of that rating still riding on preseason priors. They went 7-6 against the closing spread.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.113
#18 of 136
Elo
1720
Off EPA/play
-0.006
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.130
lower is better
Off success
+0.005
Def success
-0.070
Off explosive
-0.000
Def explosive
-0.020
Rush EPA
-0.025
offense
Pass EPA
+0.009
offense
Pts / drive
2.14
11.1 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
4.31
inside opp 40

All splits are opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Oklahoma's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.090

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior remaining33%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production53%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+1.49σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-12.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Quarterback

John Mateer7 starts

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.110.00Wk 1Wk 17

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsIllinois StateW 353-28.7-39.0L
2vsMichiganW 2413-1.8-3.5W
3@TempleW 423+11.1+23.5W
4vsAuburnW 2417-6.0-6.5W
6vsKent StateW 440-35.3-46.5L
7NTexasL 623-5.2-2.5L
8@South CarolinaW 267+1.2+4.5W
9vsOle MissL 2634-2.9-5.5L
10@TennesseeW 3327-6.2-3.0W
12@AlabamaW 2321-9.6-6.5W
13vsMissouriW 176-4.2-4.5W
14vsLSUW 1713-8.0-11.5L
17vsAlabamaL 2434+0.4-1.5L

Lines are from this team's perspective (negative = favored). ATS is against the consensus closing spread.

For analytical/entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. · Model B13 · © 2026 Predictium · Follow @PredictiumAI