#38

Mississippi State Bulldogs

SEC · 0-0

Davis Wade Stadium · 61,337 seats

Mississippi State Bulldogs rank #38 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.043 points per play (Elo 1469), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.043
#38 in FBS
Offense
+0.020
higher is better
Defense
-0.023
lower is better
SOS
+0.043
mean opp. rating
Elo
1469
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Mississippi State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.043

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.039

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.004

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production34%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.98σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-9.9 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsUL MonroeSep 5
2@MinnesotaSep 12
3@South CarolinaSep 19
4vsMissouriSep 26
5vsAlabamaOct 3
7@LSUOct 17
8vsOklahomaOct 24
9@TexasOct 31
10vsVanderbiltNov 7
11vsAuburnNov 14
12vsTennessee TechNov 21
13@Ole MissNov 27