#17

Vanderbilt Commodores

SEC · 0-0

FirstBank Stadium · 40,351 seats

Vanderbilt Commodores rank #17 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.093 points per play (Elo 1678), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.093
#17 in FBS
Offense
+0.050
higher is better
Defense
-0.044
lower is better
SOS
+0.033
mean opp. rating
Elo
1678
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Vanderbilt's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.093

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.193

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.100

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production35%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.41σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsAustin PeaySep 5
2vsDelawareSep 12
3vsNC StateSep 19
4@AuburnSep 26
5@GeorgiaOct 3
6vsOle MissOct 10
7vsArkansasOct 17
8@KentuckyOct 24
10@Mississippi StateNov 7
11vsAlabamaNov 14
12@FloridaNov 21
13vsTennesseeNov 28