#85

Kentucky Wildcats

SEC · 0-0

Kroger Field · 61,000 seats

Kentucky Wildcats rank #85 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.015 points per play (Elo 1528), a 0-0 record in the SEC, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.015
#85 in FBS
Offense
-0.012
higher is better
Defense
+0.002
lower is better
SOS
+0.059
mean opp. rating
Elo
1528
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Kentucky's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.015

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.026

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.041

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production19%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.84σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+3.9 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsYoungstown StateSep 5
2vsAlabamaSep 12
3@Texas A&MSep 19
4vsSouth AlabamaSep 26
5@South CarolinaOct 3
6vsLSUOct 10
7@OklahomaOct 17
8vsVanderbiltOct 24
10@TennesseeNov 7
11vsFloridaNov 14
12@MissouriNov 21
13vsLouisvilleNov 28