#71

South Alabama Jaguars

Sun Belt · 0-0

Hancock Whitney Stadium · 25,450 seats

South Alabama Jaguars rank #71 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.001 points per play (Elo 1461), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.001
#71 in FBS
Offense
+0.005
higher is better
Defense
+0.005
lower is better
SOS
-0.033
mean opp. rating
Elo
1461
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind South Alabama's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.001

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.038

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.037

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production79%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.73σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-15.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsSE LouisianaSep 5
2@TulaneSep 12
3vsOhioSep 19
4@KentuckySep 26
5vsUL MonroeOct 3
6@Arkansas StateOct 8
8@MarshallOct 20
9vsLouisiana TechOct 31
10@LouisianaNov 7
11vsTroyNov 14
12@Southern MissNov 21
13vsApp StateNov 27