#106

Tulane Green Wave

American Athletic · 0-0

Yulman Stadium · 30,000 seats

Tulane Green Wave rank #106 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.033 points per play (Elo 1637), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.033
#106 in FBS
Offense
-0.027
higher is better
Defense
+0.005
lower is better
SOS
-0.011
mean opp. rating
Elo
1637
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Tulane's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.033

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.055

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.087

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production21%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.05σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-6.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@DukeSep 5
2vsSouth AlabamaSep 12
3@Kansas StateSep 19
4vsSouthern MissSep 26
6@ArmyOct 10
7vsMemphisOct 16
8vsUTSAOct 24
9@CharlotteOct 30
10vsTulsaNov 7
11@RiceNov 14
12vsNorth TexasNov 21
13@South FloridaNov 27