#51

UTSA Roadrunners

American Athletic · 0-0

Alamodome · 36,582 seats · dome

UTSA Roadrunners rank #51 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.025 points per play (Elo 1576), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.025
#51 in FBS
Offense
+0.015
higher is better
Defense
-0.009
lower is better
SOS
-0.021
mean opp. rating
Elo
1576
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind UTSA's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.025

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.033

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.008

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production67%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.12σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsUT Rio Grande ValleySep 5
2@Texas StateSep 12
3@TexasSep 20
4vsColorado StateSep 26
5@RiceOct 3
6vsSouth FloridaOct 8
7vsNavyOct 17
8@TulaneOct 24
10@Florida AtlanticNov 6
11vsNorth TexasNov 14
12@UABNov 21
13vsTulsaNov 28