#118

UAB Blazers

American Athletic · 0-0

Protective Stadium · 45,000 seats

UAB Blazers rank #118 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.047 points per play (Elo 1415), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.047
#118 in FBS
Offense
-0.021
higher is better
Defense
+0.025
lower is better
SOS
-0.025
mean opp. rating
Elo
1415
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind UAB's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.047

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.047

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment0.000

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production80%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.48σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+4.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@IllinoisSep 4
2vsUL MonroeSep 12
3@LouisianaSep 20
4vsNavySep 25
5vsSamfordOct 3
6@MemphisOct 10
7vsEast CarolinaOct 15
9@South FloridaOct 31
10vsCharlotteNov 7
11@TempleNov 14
12vsUTSANov 21
13@North TexasNov 28