#120

Navy Midshipmen

American Athletic · 0-0

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 34,000 seats

Navy Midshipmen rank #120 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.051 points per play (Elo 1645), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.051
#120 in FBS
Offense
-0.019
higher is better
Defense
+0.032
lower is better
SOS
-0.020
mean opp. rating
Elo
1645
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Navy's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.051

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.079

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.130

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production14%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-3.51σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-2.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsTowsonSep 5
2@Florida AtlanticSep 12
4@UABSep 25
5@Air ForceOct 3
6vsTulsaOct 10
7@UTSAOct 17
8vsNorth TexasOct 24
9NNotre DameOct 31
10vsTempleNov 7
12vsMemphisNov 21
13@CharlotteNov 28
15NArmyDec 12