#80

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

American Athletic · 0-0

Chapman Stadium · 30,000 seats

Tulsa Golden Hurricane rank #80 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.008 points per play (Elo 1379), a 0-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.008
#80 in FBS
Offense
-0.004
higher is better
Defense
+0.004
lower is better
SOS
-0.047
mean opp. rating
Elo
1379
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Tulsa's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.008

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.000

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.008

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production41%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.36σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-1.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsOklahoma StateSep 5
2@Sam HoustonSep 12
3vsEast Texas A&MSep 20
4@ArkansasSep 27
5vsNorth TexasOct 2
6@NavyOct 10
7@RiceOct 17
8vsArmyOct 24
10@TulaneNov 7
11vsFlorida AtlanticNov 14
12vsCharlotteNov 21
13@UTSANov 28