#134

Sam Houston Bearkats

Conference USA · 0-0

Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 14,000 seats

Sam Houston Bearkats rank #134 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.080 points per play (Elo 1222), a 0-0 record in the Conference USA, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.080
#134 in FBS
Offense
-0.042
higher is better
Defense
+0.038
lower is better
SOS
-0.030
mean opp. rating
Elo
1222
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Sam Houston's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.080

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.143

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.063

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production58%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.87σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+4.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@TroySep 5
2vsTulsaSep 12
3vsNichollsSep 19
4@Texas TechSep 26
6@LibertyOct 8
7vsWestern KentuckyOct 15
8vsNew Mexico StateOct 22
9@Missouri StateOct 28
10@Jacksonville StateNov 8
11vsKennesaw StateNov 14
12vsMiddle TennesseeNov 21
13@Florida InternationalNov 28