#55

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Conference USA · 0-0

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 22,113 seats

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers rank #55 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.022 points per play (Elo 1512), a 0-0 record in the Conference USA, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.022
#55 in FBS
Offense
+0.016
higher is better
Defense
-0.006
lower is better
SOS
-0.031
mean opp. rating
Elo
1512
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Western Kentucky's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.022

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.019

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.003

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production84%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.45σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-3.4 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@NevadaSep 6
2@GeorgiaSep 12
3@IndianaSep 19
4vsMercyhurstSep 26
5@New Mexico StateOct 2
6vsMissouri StateOct 8
7@Sam HoustonOct 15
9vsDelawareOct 27
10@Middle TennesseeNov 7
11vsJacksonville StateNov 14
12@LibertyNov 21
13vsKennesaw StateNov 28