#83

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Conference USA · 0-1

AmFirst Stadium · 24,000 seats

Jacksonville State Gamecocks rank #83 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.011 points per play (Elo 1373), a 0-1 record in the Conference USA, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.011
#83 in FBS
Offense
-0.005
higher is better
Defense
+0.006
lower is better
SOS
-0.052
mean opp. rating
Elo
1373
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Jacksonville State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.011

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.005

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.016

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production50%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.51σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+5.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@North Dakota StateL 733
1vsEastern KentuckySep 5
2@OhioSep 12
3vsGeorgia SouthernSep 19
4vsMiddle TennesseeSep 26
6@Kennesaw StateOct 7
7vsFlorida InternationalOct 14
9@New Mexico StateOct 29
10vsSam HoustonNov 8
11@Western KentuckyNov 14
12vsMissouri StateNov 21
13@DelawareNov 28