#116

Georgia Southern Eagles

Sun Belt · 0-0

Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 25,000 seats

Georgia Southern Eagles rank #116 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.043 points per play (Elo 1509), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.043
#116 in FBS
Offense
-0.027
higher is better
Defense
+0.017
lower is better
SOS
-0.014
mean opp. rating
Elo
1509
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Georgia Southern's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.043

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.044

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.001

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production6%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.28σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-0.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsCharleston SouthernSep 5
2@ClemsonSep 12
3@Jacksonville StateSep 19
4vsHoustonSep 26
5@Coastal CarolinaOct 3
6vsJames MadisonOct 10
7@Old DominionOct 15
9vsApp StateOct 31
10vsMarshallNov 7
11@Georgia StateNov 14
12@TroyNov 21
13vsLouisiana TechNov 28