#109

Georgia State Panthers

Sun Belt · 0-0

Center Parc Stadium · 25,000 seats

Georgia State Panthers rank #109 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.033 points per play (Elo 1333), a 0-0 record in the Sun Belt, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.033
#109 in FBS
Offense
-0.016
higher is better
Defense
+0.017
lower is better
SOS
-0.034
mean opp. rating
Elo
1333
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Georgia State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.033

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.054

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.021

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production47%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.72σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-5.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsNorth Carolina A&TSep 4
2@Kennesaw StateSep 12
3@UCFSep 19
4vsNorthern IllinoisSep 26
5vsOld DominionOct 3
7@James MadisonOct 17
8@Arkansas StateOct 24
9vsCoastal CarolinaOct 31
10@App StateNov 7
11vsGeorgia SouthernNov 14
12@MarshallNov 21
13vsLouisianaNov 28