College Football
#125

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Sun Belt · 2-5

Brooks Stadium (SC) · 21,000 seats

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers rank #125 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.049 points per play (Elo 1296), a 2-5 record in the Sun Belt, and 46% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.049
#125 in FBS
Offense
-0.015
higher is better
Defense
+0.034
lower is better
SOS
+0.009
mean opp. rating
Elo
1296
Off EPA/play
+0.011
higher is better
Def EPA/play
+0.029
lower is better
Off success
-0.005
Def success
+0.017
Off explosive
+0.002
Def explosive
+0.008
Rush EPA
+0.013
offense
Pass EPA
-0.001
offense
Pts / drive
2.04
11.2 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
2.39
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Coastal Carolina's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.086

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.083

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.003

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining46%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production15%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.72σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-8.9 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

0.00-0.09Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@West VirginiaL 24–31———
2vsFordhamW 45–7———
3@DelawareL 14–22———
4vsLibertyL 17–34———
5vsGeorgia SouthernL 24–31———
6@MarshallW 27–21———
7vsApp StateL 32–35———
9@Georgia StateOct 31———
10vsOld DominionNov 7———
11vsArkansas StateNov 14———
12@LouisianaNov 21———
13@James MadisonNov 28———