#81

West Virginia Mountaineers

Big 12 · 0-0

Milan Puskar Stadium · 60,000 seats

West Virginia Mountaineers rank #81 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.009 points per play (Elo 1493), a 0-0 record in the Big 12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.009
#81 in FBS
Offense
-0.008
higher is better
Defense
+0.001
lower is better
SOS
+0.000
mean opp. rating
Elo
1493
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind West Virginia's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.009

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.031

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.022

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production14%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.26σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-13.6 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsCoastal CarolinaSep 5
2vsUT MartinSep 12
3NVirginiaSep 19
4vsOklahoma StateSep 26
5@Iowa StateOct 3
6vsArizonaOct 10
7vsCincinnatiOct 17
8@TCUOct 24
10@Texas TechNov 7
11vsKansasNov 14
12vsHoustonNov 21
13@UtahNov 28