#114

West Virginia Mountaineers

Big 12 · 4-8

Milan Puskar Stadium · 60,000 seats

West Virginia Mountaineers rank #114 of 136 FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.039 points per play (Elo 1473), a 4-8 record in the Big 12, and 33% of that rating still riding on preseason priors. They went 7-5 against the closing spread.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.039
#114 of 136
Elo
1473
Off EPA/play
-0.059
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.027
lower is better
Off success
-0.026
Def success
-0.007
Off explosive
-0.015
Def explosive
-0.002
Rush EPA
-0.081
offense
Pass EPA
-0.048
offense
Pts / drive
1.57
11.1 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.67
inside opp 40

All splits are opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind West Virginia's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.053

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior remaining33%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production26%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.06σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+1.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Quarterback

Nicco Marchiol4 startsLast game: Scotty Fox Jr.

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

0.00-0.05Wk 1Wk 17

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsRobert MorrisW 453-30.6-41.8W
2@OhioL 1017-7.3+3.5L
3vsPittsburghW 3124+4.0+7.0W
4@KansasL 1041-12.2-12.5L
5vsUtahL 1448+8.5+13.5L
6@BYUL 2438-22.7-19.5W
8@UCFL 1345-10.4-6.5L
9vsTCUL 1723+13.5+16.5W
10@HoustonW 4535-15.8-13.0W
11vsColoradoW 29220.0-6.5W
12@Arizona StateL 2325-15.4-10.0W
14vsTexas TechL 049+18.3+24.5L

Lines are from this team's perspective (negative = favored). ATS is against the consensus closing spread.

For analytical/entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. · Model B13 · © 2026 Predictium · Follow @PredictiumAI