College Football
#110

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Big 12 · 4-2

Boone Pickens Stadium · 55,509 seats

Oklahoma State Cowboys rank #110 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.025 points per play (Elo 1496), a 4-2 record in the Big 12, and 55% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.025
#110 in FBS
Offense
-0.013
higher is better
Defense
+0.012
lower is better
SOS
+0.045
mean opp. rating
Elo
1496
Off EPA/play
+0.047
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.017
lower is better
Off success
+0.034
Def success
-0.009
Off explosive
+0.013
Def explosive
-0.004
Rush EPA
+0.003
offense
Pass EPA
+0.090
offense
Pts / drive
2.65
10.5 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.36
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Oklahoma State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.099

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.110

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.010

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining55%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production0%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.01σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-8.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

0.00-0.10Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@TulsaL 10–24———
2vsOregonW 39–31———
3vsMurray StateW 59–0———
4@West VirginiaW 41–24———
6vsUCFW 42–28———
7@HoustonL 32–35———
8vsColoradoOct 24———
9@Iowa StateOct 31———
10@Kansas StateNov 7———
11vsTexas TechNov 14———
12@Arizona StateNov 21———
13vsKansasNov 28———