College Football
#46

Kansas State Wildcats

Big 12 · 4-2

Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 50,000 seats

Kansas State Wildcats rank #46 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.050 points per play (Elo 1613), a 4-2 record in the Big 12, and 50% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.050
#46 in FBS
Offense
+0.038
higher is better
Defense
-0.012
lower is better
SOS
+0.018
mean opp. rating
Elo
1613
Off EPA/play
+0.062
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.016
lower is better
Off success
+0.032
Def success
-0.026
Off explosive
+0.003
Def explosive
+0.003
Rush EPA
+0.091
offense
Pass EPA
+0.044
offense
Pts / drive
2.84
10.0 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.76
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Kansas State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.022

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.056

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.034

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining50%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production71%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.34σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-5.2 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Quarterback

Av. Johnson1 starts

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.050.00Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsNichollsW 71–3———
2vsWashington StateW 34–7———
3vsTulaneW 31–20———
4@CincinnatiL 26–31———
6vsHoustonL 16–35———
7vsKansasW 35–24———
8@Arizona StateOct 24———
9@ColoradoOct 31———
10vsOklahoma StateNov 7———
11@TCUNov 14———
12vsArizonaNov 21———
13@Iowa StateNov 28———