#53

Arizona State Sun Devils

Big 12 · 0-0

Mountain America Stadium · 65,870 seats

Arizona State Sun Devils rank #53 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.024 points per play (Elo 1597), a 0-0 record in the Big 12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.024
#53 in FBS
Offense
+0.009
higher is better
Defense
-0.015
lower is better
SOS
+0.010
mean opp. rating
Elo
1597
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Arizona State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.024

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.072

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.048

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production16%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.37σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+2.9 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsMorgan StateSep 6
2@Texas A&MSep 12
3NKansasSep 19
5vsBaylorOct 3
6vsHawai'iOct 10
7@Texas TechOct 17
8vsKansas StateOct 24
9@BYUOct 31
10vsColoradoNov 7
11@UCFNov 14
12vsOklahoma StateNov 21
13@ArizonaNov 28