College Football
#9

BYU Cougars

Big 12 · 6-0

LaVell Edwards Stadium · 63,470 seats

BYU Cougars rank #9 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.129 points per play (Elo 1787), a 6-0 record in the Big 12, and 50% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.129
#9 in FBS
Offense
+0.063
higher is better
Defense
-0.066
lower is better
SOS
+0.044
mean opp. rating
Elo
1787
Off EPA/play
+0.078
higher is better
Def EPA/play
-0.097
lower is better
Off success
+0.042
Def success
-0.034
Off explosive
+0.009
Def explosive
-0.014
Rush EPA
+0.072
offense
Pass EPA
+0.095
offense
Pts / drive
2.98
9.9 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
3.64
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind BYU's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.082

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.131

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.048

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining50%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production79%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.13σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-4.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Quarterback

B. Bachmeier1 starts

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

+0.130.00Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsUtah TechW 63–7———
2vsArizonaW 28–17———
3@Colorado StateW 41–23———
5@TCUW 17–10———
6vsIowa StateW 24–10———
7vsNotre DameW 28–24———
8@UCFOct 24———
9vsArizona StateOct 31———
10@UtahNov 7———
11vsBaylorNov 14———
12@KansasNov 21———
13vsCincinnatiNov 28———