#70

UCF Knights

Big 12 · 0-0

FBC Mortgage Stadium · 44,206 seats

UCF Knights rank #70 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.000 points per play (Elo 1479), a 0-0 record in the Big 12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.000
#70 in FBS
Offense
-0.002
higher is better
Defense
-0.002
lower is better
SOS
-0.007
mean opp. rating
Elo
1479
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind UCF's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.000

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.014

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.014

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production25%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent0.00σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-2.6 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsBethune-CookmanSep 3
2@PittsburghSep 12
3vsGeorgia StateSep 19
4vsTCUSep 26
5@HoustonOct 3
6@Oklahoma StateOct 10
8vsBYUOct 24
9vsBaylorOct 30
10@KansasNov 7
11vsArizona StateNov 14
12vsIowa StateNov 20
13@ColoradoNov 28