#90

Iowa State Cyclones

Big 12 · 0-0

Jack Trice Stadium · 61,500 seats

Iowa State Cyclones rank #90 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.019 points per play (Elo 1614), a 0-0 record in the Big 12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.019
#90 in FBS
Offense
-0.012
higher is better
Defense
+0.007
lower is better
SOS
-0.000
mean opp. rating
Elo
1614
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Iowa State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.019

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.054

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.072

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production2%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.02σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-6.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsSoutheast Missouri StateSep 5
2@IowaSep 12
3vsBowling GreenSep 19
4vsUtahSep 26
5vsWest VirginiaOct 3
6@BYUOct 10
8@ArizonaOct 24
9vsOklahoma StateOct 31
10@BaylorNov 7
11vsCincinnatiNov 14
12@UCFNov 20
13vsKansas StateNov 28