#128

Bowling Green Falcons

Mid-American · 0-0

Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 24,000 seats

Bowling Green Falcons rank #128 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.065 points per play (Elo 1410), a 0-0 record in the Mid-American, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.065
#128 in FBS
Offense
-0.037
higher is better
Defense
+0.028
lower is better
SOS
-0.036
mean opp. rating
Elo
1410
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Bowling Green's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.065

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.074

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.009

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production-6%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.76σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-8.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsTarleton StateSep 5
2@NebraskaSep 12
3@Iowa StateSep 19
4vsSouth FloridaSep 26
5@Miami (OH)Oct 3
6vsSacramento StateOct 10
7vsBall StateOct 17
8@BuffaloOct 24
9@Western MichiganOct 31
11vsKent StateNov 11
12@ToledoNov 21
13vsMassachusettsNov 28