#138

Massachusetts Minutemen

Mid-American · 0-0

Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 17,000 seats

Massachusetts Minutemen rank #138 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.158 points per play (Elo 1240), a 0-0 record in the Mid-American, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.158
#138 in FBS
Offense
-0.093
higher is better
Defense
+0.065
lower is better
SOS
-0.053
mean opp. rating
Elo
1240
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Massachusetts's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.158

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.189

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.031

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production-57%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.07σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+1.6 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@RutgersSep 3
2vsSacred HeartSep 12
3vsStonehillSep 19
4@Sacramento StateSep 26
5vsEastern MichiganOct 3
6vsMiami (OH)Oct 10
7@BuffaloOct 17
8@UConnOct 23
10vsBall StateNov 4
11@ToledoNov 11
12vsAkronNov 18
13@Bowling GreenNov 28