#34

Toledo Rockets

Mid-American · 0-0

Glass Bowl · 26,038 seats

Toledo Rockets rank #34 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.051 points per play (Elo 1581), a 0-0 record in the Mid-American, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.051
#34 in FBS
Offense
+0.035
higher is better
Defense
-0.016
lower is better
SOS
-0.045
mean opp. rating
Elo
1581
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Toledo's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.051

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.183

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.132

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production66%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.85σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-4.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@Michigan StateSep 5
2vsCentral ConnecticutSep 12
3vsTempleSep 19
4vsSan Diego StateSep 26
5@Ball StateOct 3
6vsBuffaloOct 10
7@Eastern MichiganOct 17
8vsWestern MichiganOct 24
10@Sacramento StateNov 4
11vsMassachusettsNov 11
12vsBowling GreenNov 21
13@OhioNov 27