#75

Central Michigan Chippewas

Mid-American · 0-0

Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 30,255 seats

Central Michigan Chippewas rank #75 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.003 points per play (Elo 1463), a 0-0 record in the Mid-American, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.003
#75 in FBS
Offense
+0.002
higher is better
Defense
+0.005
lower is better
SOS
-0.025
mean opp. rating
Elo
1463
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Central Michigan's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.003

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.017

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.020

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production54%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.97σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-4.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@New MexicoSep 6
2vsColgateSep 12
3vsWyomingSep 19
4@MiamiSep 26
5vsAkronOct 3
6@OhioOct 10
7vsWestern MichiganOct 17
8vsMiami (OH)Oct 24
10NEastern MichiganNov 4
11vsSacramento StateNov 11
12@BuffaloNov 18
13@Ball StateNov 28