#64

New Mexico Lobos

Mountain West · 0-0

University Stadium (NM) · 39,224 seats

New Mexico Lobos rank #64 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.013 points per play (Elo 1570), a 0-0 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.013
#64 in FBS
Offense
+0.010
higher is better
Defense
-0.003
lower is better
SOS
-0.037
mean opp. rating
Elo
1570
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind New Mexico's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.013

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.049

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.036

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production58%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.76σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+0.1 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsCentral MichiganSep 6
2vsMercyhurstSep 12
3@OklahomaSep 19
4@New Mexico StateSep 26
5vsUTEPOct 3
7@Hawai'iOct 17
8vsNorth Dakota StateOct 25
9@San José StateOct 31
10@NevadaNov 7
11vsUNLVNov 15
12@WyomingNov 22
13vsAir ForceNov 28