#114

Wyoming Cowboys

Mountain West · 0-0

War Memorial Stadium · 29,181 seats

Wyoming Cowboys rank #114 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.040 points per play (Elo 1422), a 0-0 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.040
#114 in FBS
Offense
-0.021
higher is better
Defense
+0.019
lower is better
SOS
-0.044
mean opp. rating
Elo
1422
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Wyoming's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.040

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.011

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.029

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production23%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.06σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+2.4 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@Colorado StateSep 5
2vsNorthern ColoradoSep 12
3@Central MichiganSep 19
4vsHawai'iSep 26
5@North Dakota StateOct 3
6@San José StateOct 10
7vsNorthern IllinoisOct 17
8vsAir ForceOct 24
10@UNLVNov 8
11@UTEPNov 14
12vsNew MexicoNov 22
13vsUConnNov 28