#77

North Dakota State Bison

Mountain West · 0-0

Fargodome · 18,700 seats · dome

North Dakota State Bison rank #77 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings (Elo 1650), a 0-0 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
#77 in FBS
Offense
higher is better
Defense
lower is better
SOS
-0.200
mean opp. rating
Elo
1650
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind North Dakota State's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.256

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsJacksonville StateAug 29
1vsFordhamSep 5
2@Air ForceSep 13
3@Sacramento StateSep 20
5vsWyomingOct 3
6@UNLVOct 10
7vsNevadaOct 17
8@New MexicoOct 24
9vsUTEPOct 31
11@Hawai'iNov 15
12vsNorthern IllinoisNov 21
13@San José StateNov 27
For analytical/entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. · Model B13 · © 2026 Predictium · Follow @PredictiumAI