#126

Nevada Wolf Pack

Mountain West · 0-0

Mackay Stadium · 27,000 seats

Nevada Wolf Pack rank #126 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.059 points per play (Elo 1415), a 0-0 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.059
#126 in FBS
Offense
-0.031
higher is better
Defense
+0.028
lower is better
SOS
-0.038
mean opp. rating
Elo
1415
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Nevada's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.059

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.093

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment+0.034

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production36%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.90σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-5.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsWestern KentuckySep 6
2vsMontana StateSep 13
3@Middle TennesseeSep 19
4vsAir ForceSep 26
6@UTEPOct 10
7@North Dakota StateOct 17
8vsSan José StateOct 24
9@UCLAOct 31
10vsNew MexicoNov 7
11@Northern IllinoisNov 14
12vsHawai'iNov 21
13@UNLVNov 29