College Football
#133

Northern Illinois Huskies

Mountain West · 0-6

Huskie Stadium · 23,595 seats

Northern Illinois Huskies rank #133 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.074 points per play (Elo 1289), a 0-6 record in the Mountain West, and 55% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.074
#133 in FBS
Offense
-0.046
higher is better
Defense
+0.028
lower is better
SOS
+0.007
mean opp. rating
Elo
1289
Off EPA/play
-0.070
higher is better
Def EPA/play
+0.025
lower is better
Off success
-0.015
Def success
+0.024
Off explosive
+0.002
Def explosive
+0.005
Rush EPA
-0.006
offense
Pass EPA
-0.111
offense
Pts / drive
1.42
9.3 drives/gm
Pts / opportunity
1.72
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Northern Illinois's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.058

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.045

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.013

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining55%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production44%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.00σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-12.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Rating trajectory

Weekly net rating across the season — starts at the preseason prior and moves as real games replace it.

0.00-0.07Wk 1Wk 8

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@IowaL 0–40———
2vsIllinois StateL 24–28———
3@ArizonaL 17–42———
4@Georgia StateL 14–35———
6vsAir ForceL 7–28———
7@WyomingL 23–41———
8vsHawai'iOct 24———
9@UNLVNov 1———
10@San José StateNov 7———
11vsNevadaNov 14———
12@North Dakota StateNov 21———
13vsUTEPNov 28———