#123

Northern Illinois Huskies

Mountain West · 0-0

Huskie Stadium · 23,595 seats

Northern Illinois Huskies rank #123 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.058 points per play (Elo 1408), a 0-0 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.058
#123 in FBS
Offense
-0.027
higher is better
Defense
+0.031
lower is better
SOS
-0.034
mean opp. rating
Elo
1408
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Northern Illinois's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.058

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating-0.045

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.013

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production44%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-1.00σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal-12.7 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@IowaSep 5
2vsIllinois StateSep 12
3@ArizonaSep 20
4@Georgia StateSep 26
6vsAir ForceOct 10
7@WyomingOct 17
8vsHawai'iOct 24
9@UNLVNov 1
10@San José StateNov 7
11vsNevadaNov 14
12@North Dakota StateNov 21
13vsUTEPNov 28