#30

Arizona Wildcats

Big 12 · 0-0

Arizona Stadium · 50,782 seats

Arizona Wildcats rank #30 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.055 points per play (Elo 1634), a 0-0 record in the Big 12, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.055
#30 in FBS
Offense
+0.031
higher is better
Defense
-0.025
lower is better
SOS
+0.013
mean opp. rating
Elo
1634
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Arizona's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.055

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.094

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.039

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production65%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.20σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+2.0 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsNorthern ArizonaSep 6
2@BYUSep 12
3vsNorthern IllinoisSep 20
4@Washington StateSep 26
5vsCincinnatiOct 3
6@West VirginiaOct 10
8vsIowa StateOct 24
9@Texas TechOct 31
10vsTCUNov 7
11vsUtahNov 14
12@Kansas StateNov 21
13vsArizona StateNov 28