Predictium · Bubble Watch
Bubble Watch · updated weekly
As of 17 Aug 2026
The big question, scored

Are we in a bubble?

050100CHEAPMANIA74BUBBLE INDEX
Elevated · Frothy

Priced for perfection, no margin of safety.

This week
74/ 100
▲ +2 vs last week (72)
≥20% S&P drawdown · 12mo
14%BASE RATE
80% range 6%–26% · historical, not a forecast
52-week range
Elevated all year
What moved this week: Equity valuation rose (+2) and concentration rose (+3), lifting the index (net +2).
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Monday mornings — the number + what moved. Free, never gated.
Live data: FRED (ICE BofA OAS), multpl / MacroMicro (CAPE), buffettindicator.org (mkt cap/GDP), JCHS / Census (home/income), Damodaran (ERP). Auto-refreshed weekly.
The drawdown figure is the measured historical base rate (≥20% S&P drawdown within 12 months, 1871–present) with a wide 80% range — not a forecast. Predictium's own testing finds no public indicator reliably times drawdowns at this horizon; see methodology.
Methodology & sources: how every score is built →
Not investment advice. A high reading signals fragility and weak long-run expected returns — not a near-term crash call.