The moat · calibration over confidence
Weekly archive
Every weekly reading is stored, append-only. Over months this builds a public, time-stamped record we can Brier-score — the single most important long-term feature. History is kept from week one even though the full calibration view ships later.
Bubble Index · 19 weekly readings
range 63–74
Past readings & calls
| Week of | Index | Δ | P(≥20% dd) | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2026 | 74 | +2 | 14% | Equity valuation rose (+2) and concentration rose (+3), lifting the index (net +2). |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 72 | -2 | 14% | Equity valuation eased (-2) and credit & complacency eased (-1), pulling down the index (net -2). |
| 27 Jul 2026 | 74 | 0 | 14% | Equity valuation eased (-1) and housing rose (+2), leaving the index (net +0). |
| 20 Jul 2026 | 74 | 0 | 14% | Credit & complacency eased (-1), leaving the index (net +0). |
| 8 Jul 2026 | 74 | 0 | 14% | Little changed this week — the index held at its prior level (net +0). |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 74 | 0 | 14% | Housing eased (-4) and equity valuation rose (+1), leaving the index (net +0). |
| 27 Jun 2026 | 74 | +3 | 14% | HY spreads tightened ~8bps and CAPE ticked up; housing eased on a 5th straight dip — net +3. |
| 20 Jun 2026 | 71 | -1 | 14% | A small valuation pullback as the rally paused. |
| 13 Jun 2026 | 72 | +2 | 14% | HY spreads tightened to new lows — peak complacency. |
| 6 Jun 2026 | 70 | +1 | 14% | Nasdaq forward multiple ticked up; concentration steady. |
| 30 May 2026 | 69 | -1 | 14% | Housing cooled for a 3rd straight month, trimming the read. |
| 23 May 2026 | 70 | +2 | 14% | Broad melt-up lifted valuation across the board. |
| 16 May 2026 | 68 | +1 | 14% | Credit complacency rose; IG spreads near cycle tights. |
| 9 May 2026 | 67 | +1 | 14% | Equity risk premium compressed as rates eased. |
| 2 May 2026 | 66 | +1 | 14% | Buffett Indicator pushed higher on stronger market cap / GDP. |
| 25 Apr 2026 | 65 | -1 | 14% | HY spreads widened modestly — a touch less complacent. |
| 18 Apr 2026 | 66 | +2 | 14% | Mag 7 concentration hit a fresh high; equity valuation firmed. |
| 11 Apr 2026 | 64 | +1 | 14% | CAPE crept up with the spring rally; credit unchanged. |
| 4 Apr 2026 | 63 | 0 | 14% | Baseline reading as Bubble Watch history begins. |
Calibration view — coming soon. Once enough ≥20% drawdown calls have resolved, reliability and Brier metrics appear here — the public proof that the numbers mean something. The data that makes it possible is being stored now.