#66

UNLV Rebels

Mountain West · 0-1

Allegiant Stadium · 65,000 seats · dome

UNLV Rebels rank #66 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of +0.012 points per play (Elo 1563), a 0-1 record in the Mountain West, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
+0.012
#66 in FBS
Offense
+0.003
higher is better
Defense
-0.009
lower is better
SOS
-0.029
mean opp. rating
Elo
1563
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind UNLV's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior+0.012

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.049

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.038

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production15%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent+0.18σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+0.8 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeNo

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1vsMemphisL 2127
1@Hawai'iSep 6
2@North TexasSep 12
4@AkronSep 26
5vsCaliforniaOct 3
6vsNorth Dakota StateOct 10
7@Air ForceOct 17
9vsNorthern IllinoisNov 1
10vsWyomingNov 8
11@New MexicoNov 15
12@San José StateNov 22
13vsNevadaNov 29