#100

Memphis Tigers

American Athletic · 1-0

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 58,325 seats

Memphis Tigers rank #100 among FBS teams in the Predictium ratings with an opponent-adjusted net rating of -0.025 points per play (Elo 1584), a 1-0 record in the American Athletic, and 100% of that rating still riding on preseason priors.

Ratings

Net rating
-0.025
#100 in FBS
Offense
-0.019
higher is better
Defense
+0.006
lower is better
SOS
-0.029
mean opp. rating
Elo
1584
Off EPA/play
higher is better
Def EPA/play
lower is better
Off success
Def success
Off explosive
Def explosive
Rush EPA
offense
Pass EPA
offense
Pts / drive
Pts / opportunity
inside opp 40

Offense and Defense are the net rating's own split (offense − defense reconciles to net rating exactly); everything else is opponent-adjusted, per play. Defensive numbers are from the defense's perspective: negative means opponents produced less than expected. SOS is the mean net rating of every opponent on the schedule.

What drives our rating

No black box: these are the actual model inputs behind Memphis's number, including exactly how much is still preseason prior versus observed play.

Preseason prior-0.025

Where our rating started before a snap was played

Prior season rating+0.046

Last season's final rating, for comparison

Offseason adjustment-0.071

This season's prior minus last season's final rating — our offseason risers/fallers number

Prior remaining100%

How much of today's rating still rides on that prior — fades as real games arrive

Returning production6%

Share of last season's production (PPA) back on the roster

Recruiting talent-0.01σ

Recruiting talent, standard deviations above the FBS average

Transfer portal+3.5 pts

Net production gained or lost through the transfer portal

Coaching changeYes

First-year head coach adds uncertainty and resets some priors

Schedule & results

WkOpponentResultOur lineMarketATS
1@UNLVW 2721
1vsArkansas StateSep 5
2@Boise StateSep 12
3vsUT MartinSep 19
5@CharlotteOct 3
6vsUABOct 10
7@TulaneOct 16
8vsEast CarolinaOct 22
9vsArmyOct 31
11@South FloridaNov 13
12@NavyNov 21
13vsTempleNov 27